Maine Moose Lottery Odds: Your Real Chances of Winning a Permit in 2026
Over 72,000 hunters apply for roughly 4,000 permits every year. Here's how the math actually works — and what you can do about it.
The Numbers
Every spring, Maine's moose lottery draws massive interest. In recent years, more than 72,000 applications have poured in for approximately 4,000 permits. That's roughly a 1-in-18 chance overall — about 5.5%.
But that headline number is misleading. Your actual odds depend on several factors: whether you're a resident or non-resident, how many bonus points you've accumulated, and which Wildlife Management District (WMD) you're applying for. Some hunters have dramatically better odds than the average. Others have dramatically worse.
Understanding these factors is the difference between applying blind and applying strategically. Let's dig in.
Resident vs. Non-Resident Odds
Maine's moose lottery is heavily weighted toward residents. By law, the vast majority of permits go to Maine residents — typically around 90% or more of the total allocation. Non-residents compete for a much smaller pool.
For residents, the effective odds are better than the headline number suggests. With roughly 50,000+ resident applications competing for ~3,600 resident permits, the odds sit around 1 in 14 before bonus points are factored in.
Non-residents face steeper competition. With 20,000+ non-resident applications competing for ~400 permits, the raw odds are closer to 1 in 50. Bonus points help, but the pool is smaller and the math is harder.
This resident advantage is by design. Maine manages its moose population for the benefit of its residents first, with non-resident permits serving as a secondary allocation.
How Bonus Points Work
Maine introduced the bonus point system in 1998 to reward hunters who apply consistently year after year. Each year you apply without winning, you earn bonus points. More points mean more entries in the drawing, which means better odds.
The accrual schedule accelerates over time:
| Consecutive Years Applying | Points Earned Per Year | Cumulative Points (End of Period) |
|---|---|---|
| Years 1–5 | 1 point/year | 5 points |
| Years 6–10 | 2 points/year | 15 points |
| Years 11–15 | 3 points/year | 30 points |
| Years 16+ | 10 points/year | Keeps growing |
A hunter who has applied every year since 1998 could have over 160 bonus points heading into the 2026 drawing. Each bonus point gives you an additional entry, so 160 points means 161 entries vs. one entry for a first-time applicant. That's a massive advantage.
But there's a catch. You lose all your points if:
- You win a permit (points reset to zero)
- You miss two consecutive years of applying (points reset to zero)
Missing a single year doesn't reset your points, but it does break your consecutive-year streak for accrual purposes. If you're sitting on 20+ years of points, missing even one year is costly because you drop from the 10-point tier back down.
Want to see exactly where you stand? Use our free Bonus Points Calculator to track your points and see when you'll hit the guaranteed threshold.
The 65+ Guaranteed Permit
There's one way to remove all uncertainty from the process: the guaranteed permit for senior residents.
Maine residents aged 65 or older with 30 or more bonus points are guaranteed a moose permit if they apply. This is the ultimate payoff for decades of consistent applications. At the 10-point-per-year rate (years 16+), most dedicated applicants reach 30 points well before age 65 — the age requirement is typically the bottleneck, not the points.
If you're approaching this threshold, it's worth planning ahead. The guaranteed permit lets you choose your WMD and season preference, and you're not competing against anyone. It's your permit.
For hunters who hit this milestone, the Bonus Points Calculator will show exactly how many years remain.
Odds by WMD
Not all Wildlife Management Districts are created equal. Some zones are far more popular than others, and IFW allocates permits based on moose population health, not hunter demand.
Generally, the most sought-after WMDs are in the northern and western parts of the state — zones with the highest moose density and the best hunting terrain. WMDs like 1, 2, 4, and 5 tend to draw heavy competition. Less popular zones in southern and central Maine may have somewhat better odds simply because fewer hunters apply for them.
IFW publishes permit allocations by zone each year. Comparing the number of permits available in each WMD against the number of applicants gives you a zone-specific probability. Some zones may offer 1-in-10 odds while others sit at 1-in-30.
Explore the zones on our interactive WMD map to understand the geographic breakdown and plan your application strategy.
This is also where swapping becomes valuable. If you're drawn for a zone that doesn't match your preference, a permit swap lets you trade into the WMD you actually want.
What Happens If You Win
Drawing day for the 2026 Maine moose lottery is June 20, 2026. Results are published on the InforME website, and winners are notified by mail. Here's the timeline after that:
- June 20: Drawing results published. Winners can verify at InforME.
- June – July: Winners review their assigned WMD, season, and permit type (bull or antlerless). If you want a different zone or type, this is when you arrange a swap.
- July 30 (approx.): Swap deadline. All permit transfers must be submitted to IFW by this date. After this, your permit is locked.
- September – November: Moose hunting seasons run across multiple segments depending on WMD and permit type.
The swap window is tight — roughly five weeks from drawing day to the deadline. That's why pre-registering on MooseTrader before the drawing is so valuable. You'll already be in the system, and our matching algorithm can start finding potential swap partners the moment results are published.
How to Track Results
Don't want to refresh InforME all day on June 20? MooseTrader's Winner Watch is a free tool that monitors lottery results and alerts you the moment someone on your list is drawn.
You can watch unlimited names — yourself, your hunting partners, family members, anyone. Set it up before the drawing and get instant notifications via email when results drop.
Winner Watch is completely free. No membership required. No catch. It's our way of getting hunters into the MooseTrader ecosystem before they need to swap.
Improving Your Strategy
You can't control the lottery, but you can control your approach:
- Never miss a year. Missing two consecutive years wipes out all your bonus points. Even if you can't hunt this season, apply anyway to protect your points.
- Apply strategically by WMD. Research which zones have better odds relative to your preferences. Sometimes a less popular zone plus a swap gets you where you want to be.
- Pre-register early. Pre-registering on MooseTrader before the drawing means you're first in line for swap matches if you or your hunting partner wins.
- Track your points. Use the Bonus Points Calculator to know exactly where you stand and when you'll reach guaranteed status.
- Set up Winner Watch. Free alerts for unlimited names. No reason not to use it.